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The positive phase of the TNH pattern is associated with below-average surface temperatures throughout the western and central United States, and across central and eastern Canada.

It is also associated with above-average precipitation across the central and eastern subtropical North Pacific, and below-average precipitation in the western United States and across Cuba, the Bahama Islands, and much of the central North Atlantic Ocean.

Q: The financial press often states the definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP.

How does that relate to the NBER's recession dating procedure?

The Tropical/ Northern Hemisphere (TNH) pattern was first classified by Mo and Livezey (1986), and appears as a prominent wintertime mode during December-February.

The positive phase of the TNH pattern features above-average heights over the Gulf of Alaska and from the Gulf of Mexico northeastward across the western North Atlantic, and below-average heights throughout eastern Canada.

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This flow pattern brought well above-normal temperatures to eastern North America and above-normal rainfall to the southwestern United States.

A: Most of the recessions identified by our procedures do consist of two or more quarters of declining real GDP, but not all of them.